The world is moving beyond fossil fuels: clean power now covers almost all new electricity demand, and clean energy draws nearly twice the investment of oil, gas and coal.
The choice in front of Canada is whether we reduce our dependence on fossil fuels or triple down on being part of the problem instead of a source of the solutions. As we chart a new course with new trading partners beyond our neighbours to the south, let’s stop putting public money into what is on its way out.
It was never about jobs versus the environment. Electric trains, solar roofs, geothermal heat and better batteries are win-win opportunities to create jobs that can’t be exported or knocked out by global conflict. It’s about energy we make and own here.
Join us in writing letters to decision makers. Pick what matters most to you, and we’ll help you draft it with templates for each of the referenced topics. You can change whatever you want to put it in your own words before you send it.
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To the Prime Minister, the Finance Minister and your MP
Electric high-speed rail. Quiet, fast and run on power we can make clean.01
The promise is in law. The plan falls short.
Parliament wrote Canada’s climate targets into federal law in 2021, and they bind the government. The government’s own projections say the measures in place today get us to about 21%.
That gap isn’t a mystery. We know where the pollution comes from, and for most of it we know what replaces it. What follows is where the pollution comes from, and seven moves that close the gap.
21% vs 40–45%
Canada’s target is to cut emissions 40 to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030. On current measures, the government’s own projections get us to about 21%.
21%40–45%
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, Greenhouse gas emissions projections, 2025
685 million tonnes in 2024
Where Canada’s greenhouse gas pollution comes from, by sector. Oil and gas is the largest source, and one of only two sectors that have grown since 2005. Figures are in million tonnes.
Oil and gas208
Transportation151
Buildings81
Heavy industry77
Agriculture70
Electricity50
Waste and other47
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Inventory Report 2026 (2024 data, by economic sector)Read it
02
Do the math: most of it stays in the ground.
The math is simple. The coal, oil and gas already in the world’s known reserves hold far more carbon than the atmosphere can take if we want to keep warming in check.
Researchers at University College London have run the numbers in the journal Nature, twice. Each time the answer was the same: a large share of those reserves has to stay where it is.
1/3 of oil
To keep warming below 2°C, a third of the world’s oil reserves, half of its gas reserves and over 80% of its coal reserves should stay in the ground and not be used before 2050.
Source: McGlade and Ekins, Nature, 2015 (University College London)Read it
58% of oil
For a 1.5°C limit, the 2021 update found 58% of oil, 56% of fossil gas and 89% of coal reserves must remain unextracted by 2050.
Source: Welsby, Price, Pye and Ekins, Nature, 2021 (University College London)Read it
03
Pipelines built for a shrinking market.
The new export pipeline to the BC coast should be renamed the Stranded Assets Pipeline.
Canada is charting a new path, building trade with partners around the world so our future isn’t tied to a single customer. Fossil fuels are where that dependence runs deepest: in 2024, 95.7% of the crude oil we exported, and all of our natural gas exports, went to the United States.
Dependence leaves us exposed. In 2022, oil prices jumped on supply fears amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Canadians paid 28.5% more for gasoline. A war half a world away showed up at every pump in the country.
Not the 51st state. Not a petro state.
A new export pipeline doubles down on dependence: more of the economy tied to one product, sold mostly to one customer, at a price set by events we don’t control.
The world’s demand for oil, gas and coal is reaching its peak. On today’s policy settings, the International Energy Agency expects demand for each of them to peak by 2030. The Bank of Canada warned in 2019 that if fossil fuel reserves go unused, the assets built to produce them may become stranded and lose much of their value.
The new export pipeline to the BC coast should be renamed the Stranded Assets Pipeline.
The Trans Mountain expansion’s cost estimate rose from $21.4 billion to $34.2 billion. The Parliamentary Budget Officer found that selling it at either of its valuations would mean writing off the rest of the government’s equity and recording a loss.
This was never jobs versus the environment. Canada’s clean technology sector already accounts for more than 350,000 jobs, and it has grown three years in a row. Every dollar we put into the next pipeline is a dollar not spent on the trains, grids, heat pumps and factories that will still be earning in 2050.
95.7%
Share of Canada’s crude oil exports that went to the United States in 2024. All of our natural gas exports went there too.
Source: Canada Energy Regulator, Overview of 2024 Canada-U.S. energy tradeRead it
+28.5%
What Canadians paid for gasoline in 2022 over 2021, as crude prices rose on supply fears amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index: Annual review, 2022Read it
$34.2B
The Trans Mountain expansion’s total project cost estimate, up from $21.4 billion. At the budget officer’s valuations, a sale would mean a loss on the public’s equity.
Source: Parliamentary Budget Officer, Trans Mountain Pipeline 2024 reportRead it
354,257
Jobs in Canada’s environmental and clean technology sector in 2023, up 4.3% in a year and up for the third year running.
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, December 2024Read it
A pipeline crew near Conklin, Alberta, 2015. Photo: Jason Woodhead, CC BY 2.0, cropped.04
Seven moves that close the gap.
None of these is a sacrifice. Each one cuts Canada’s dependence on fossil fuels, and each one leaves us with lower bills, steadier jobs or products we can sell to the world. Climate change is the reason to do them now. The payback is the reason they last.
Pick the one that matters most to you and tell the Prime Minister.
A heat pump outside a home. Photo: Arnt Brandseth, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Buildings
Homes that are cheap to heat.
$1,377
saved a year by households that switched from oil heat to a heat pump under the federal program
The move
Pair new housing money with efficiency and clean heat. When Ottawa pays for a home, build it efficient and heated with a heat pump from day one.
What it changes
Build Canada Homes has $13 billion over five years and must buy Canadian materials first, but nothing requires its homes to be efficient or heated with heat pumps.
91% of Canadian heat pump owners would recommend one.
Pollution cut
Buildings put out 81 million tonnes a year, 12% of Canada’s total. A home switched from oil heat to a heat pump cuts about 2.8 tonnes a year.
growth in the power lines between provinces by 2035, even in the Canada Energy Regulator’s net zero scenario
The move
Build the east-west electrical grid, with the storage and transmission to run on power made in Canada.
What it changes
The federal Canada Electricity Advisory Council found the power system needs about $1.4 trillion of investment by 2050, roughly double today’s rate.
The Clean Electricity investment tax credit already pays back 15% of the cost of building clean power.
Clean power costs money once, to build, and very little to run. Bills stop jumping when world oil and gas prices do.
Pollution cut
Electricity is down 57% since 2005, the biggest drop of any sector, as provinces closed coal plants. At 50 million tonnes it is now 7% of the total, and a clean grid is what lets homes and cars switch off oil and gas.
more oil and gas produced, 2021 to 2024. Over the same years, jobs in the industry fell 17%.
The move
Stop paying oil companies to pump more oil, and put a dollar into Canadian clean energy for every dollar that goes to oil and gas.
What it changes
Draft legislation from July 2026 would let carbon captured to pump more oil claim the federal carbon capture tax credit, at half the usual rate.
A new export pipeline ships crude out. It adds no refining here and doesn’t lower the price at a Canadian pump.
Pollution cut
Oil and gas is the largest source of pollution in Canada: 208 million tonnes, 30% of the total. It is 10 million tonnes higher than in 2005, while most other sectors came down.
An electric bus charging at the Angrignon terminus, Montreal. Photo: Jeangagnon, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Transportation
Cheaper, cleaner ways to get around.
5 to 10×
cheaper to charge an electric car than to fill up on gas for the same distance, says the Government of Canada
The move
Create an incentive to buy used EVs as well as new ones, bring back an enforceable zero emission vehicle standard, and fund transit that can actually afford to run.
What it changes
The federal rebate covers new electric cars only: up to $5,000 this year, falling to $2,000 by 2030.
In 2024 the government announced a permanent transit fund of up to $3 billion a year, starting in 2026-27.
Pollution cut
Transportation puts out 151 million tonnes, 22% of the total. The government’s own analysis says its proposal to repeal the electric vehicle sales standard would give up 326 million tonnes of cuts by 2050.
Rolled steel, ready to ship. Photo: Vasily Astanin, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Heavy industry
Clean industry, made here.
3 million
tonnes of emissions a year cut by 2030 at one Hamilton steel plant, by ending coal-fired steelmaking with $400 million of federal help
The move
Support Canadian factories that cut emissions, and process critical minerals here instead of shipping them raw.
What it changes
Budget 2025 created a $2 billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, starting in 2026-27.
Six clean economy tax credits, law since March 2026, are expected to total about $103 billion to 2034-35.
Pollution cut
Heavy industry puts out 77 million tonnes, about 11% of the total. Cleaner steelmaking at ArcelorMittal Dofasco alone is set to cut up to 3 million tonnes a year.
Solar installers at work. Clean energy is built by hand, close to home. Photo: public domain.05
The money is already moving.
Most of this doesn’t need a new program. It needs the money Ottawa is already spending to buy the cleaner option.
The Major Projects Office was set up to get nation building projects built within two years. Its list includes a BC Hydro transmission line, two northern hydro projects and new nuclear at Darlington. It also includes an oil pipeline and two liquefied natural gas projects, and not one wind or solar project.
Build Canada Homes will spend $13 billion over five years. A single rule, that those homes be efficient and heated with heat pumps, would lower bills in every one of them for decades.
About Beyond Fossil Fuels
Since 2013. Beyond Fossil Fuels started in British Columbia as a Facebook page with one goal: reduce Canada’s dependence on fossil fuels and cut the greenhouse gas pollution that comes with it.
It was started by the founders of Elephant in the Room, and today it’s one of that organization’s campaigns, alongside Canadian Climate Values.
Join us in writing letters to decision makers about what this budget should build to end our dependence on fossil fuels. Few people ever write about the budget, so the ones who do get counted. Pick the move that matters most to you. We’ll help you draft the letter, and you can change every word.
